Three Cents Worth: Checking Under the 'Hood

Thursday, May 17, 2007, by Joshua

[This week, our ~~graph~~ table guy Jonathan Miller drills down into your neighborhood. Click on the image to expand.]

This week I was a tablist (in Curbedspeak) rather than a chartist and presented the percent change in the annual price per square foot by neighborhood between 2005 and 2006 and then sorted them. I omitted much of the overlapping areas we track, (ie uptown, downtown, etc.) and went with more specific areas that we cover in our reports. The top (red/hot) and bottom (blue/cold) 5 for 2006 were color coded presented by percent change.

I then showed where those neighborhoods were in the prior year (2005) in the second column section. The third section was a position change column that show how much a neighborhood/market changed over the year, so for example, Harlem + East Harlem increased from 6th position in 2005 to 1st position in in 2006 or +5 positions relative to the other markets covered. Sorry about being so numbers-heavy this go 'round.

The change from 2004 to 2005 (prior year) was characterized by an overall 25.8% increase in price per square foot for all of Manhattan with all but one of the markets experiencing double digit increases in price per square foot. The overall Manhattan price per square foot change would have been between the 9th and 10th ranked markets in 2005. The overall Manhattan average price per square foot change from 2005 to 2006 was 6.8% and fell between the 15th and 16th ranked positions indicating that the higher ranked locations were generally
smaller in size, carrying less weight.

In either year, none of the neighborhoods/markets saw negative price declines and judging by the early going in 2007, "more of the same" appears to be the trend. Of course, this is in distinct contrast to the national housing picture.
· Manhattan Neighborhood Change in Price Per Square Foot [Miller Samuel]

Filed under Market Analysis, Jonathan Miller, Three Cents Worth

Email this post to a friend

Comments feed for this post

Comments (24 extant)

do brooklyn, will ya. will ya please.

By seven at May 17, 2007 4:05 PM

New York residential real estate is about half the price of London. Higher we go.

By DaDude at May 17, 2007 4:07 PM

seven - workin' on it!

By Jonathan J. Miller at May 17, 2007 4:08 PM

les flatlined? ? ? ouch. . .

By sheep at May 17, 2007 4:41 PM

The NYC market will continue to follow the follow trend of wallstreet, although it lags a little bit. Anybody who thinks that there will be a RE correction in NYC during a strong bull market is an idiot.

By nowayman at May 17, 2007 4:41 PM

Go Harlem!!

By Anonymous at May 17, 2007 4:56 PM

if i bought a condo in west harlem at the start of 2006, what kind of price appreciation can i expect up to now?

By Anonymous at May 17, 2007 5:01 PM

Where are you pulling these numbers from Mr. Miller?? Is this only from Elliman sales?? I know the Manhattan market is relatively strong still, but sometimes I question some of these graphs you put out.

By Anonymous at May 17, 2007 5:17 PM

Can he give actual average prices?

I only see % change numbers. A large % change for a low-value neighborhood doesn't really give you an accurate picture of the true worth of properties in each neighborhood.

By Numbers at May 17, 2007 5:19 PM

10.

Bing, where are you?? oh I see, trapped in a tiny apt, in the blue at postion 22, loser.

By Anonymous at May 17, 2007 6:02 PM

11.

Bing, it's even worse, your position 24, how can that be for someone so opinionated.

By Anonymous at May 17, 2007 6:07 PM

12.

Basically, the chart says that once real estate prices for the entire island of Manhatten reach those found around Central Park, then we will see increases slow and prices start to level off. It makes perfect sense. Prices on 5 ave and CPW are what you have to look forward to as the standard for all of Manhattan, 50% of Brooklyn, and LIC. Once they even out, we will not have to listen to talk of a speculative bubble.

New York is going down the crapper.

By queenscrapper at May 17, 2007 6:50 PM

13.

Does this table summarize trends for only condos and co-ops, or are townhouses included as well?

By Central Harlem Anonymous at May 17, 2007 7:41 PM

14.

Jonathan, I'm not sure how you can consider this "more of the same". It seems to me, from this chart at least, that the rate of appreciation has taken a big step back in the last 12 months.

Have you learned nothing from David Lereah? Blind optimism undermines any credibility you have.

By Anonymous at May 17, 2007 7:45 PM

15.

Anon 8 - its market wide sales data. Sorry I've presented some charts where you've questioned the results - feel free to email the links in question and perhaps I can explain further. This was my 80th chart/graphic for Curbed and although its fun to do them, sometimes it gets tough to parse the real estate market a completely different way each week as well as articulate my points clearly. Sometimes thats simply due to PEBCAK.

By Jonathan J. Miller at May 17, 2007 7:49 PM

16.

13 - Central Harlem Anonymous - just coops and condos

14 - Anonymous Please re-read the text because you missed the last point. "and judging by the early going in 2007..." And David Lereah? Please. http://matrix.millersamuel.com/?p=1162

By Jonathan J. Miller at May 17, 2007 7:58 PM

17.

#2, interestingly, New Yorkers allot less of their income to housing than people in Tokyo, Oslo and London.

By You Got Gold at May 17, 2007 8:29 PM

18.

Right. "By more of the same" don't you mean the market will continue to decelerate?

Nice posting on DL and the NAR. I stand corrected there.

By 14 at May 17, 2007 9:44 PM

19.

By 14 - Thanks - no, again, sorry for not being more clear. Activity levels set records in the 1st quarter and the market is still very active. Prices were flat but now that inventory has dropped below last year (when we expect inventory to rise for the spring market as units are added) because sales levels continue to eat away at listings entering the market and prices are rising because of the demand and stable inventory. "More of the same", in this case means more of what we are seeing right now, not in 2006. High sales activity, rising prices and inventory kept in check, totally contrasting the national market. This last round of bonus income jump started another round of market activity. Not expecting this level of activity to continue in the second half of the year though so the edge will be taken off the gains achieved in first half. Phew.

By Jonathan J. Miller at May 17, 2007 10:08 PM

20.

Thanks Jonathan!

By 14 at May 17, 2007 11:15 PM

21.

The first graph that makes some kind of sense

By Anonymous at May 18, 2007 9:20 AM

22.

I'm with #9. This graph can be misleading...the increase in Harlem obscures the fact that some nabes actually rank the same as last year, and for many of these the RATE of increase has gone down.

What it DOES indicate is that prices have not been decreasing. But again, obscured by the fact that there's inventory being witheald (sellers holding off) and pent up demand. Either way it sez the housing market is holding steady.

By quantchick at May 18, 2007 9:44 AM

23.

Fascinating data - it will be interesting to see if these trends continue.

By Albuquerque Real Estate at May 18, 2007 12:24 PM

24.

1) I live in Morningside - yay!
2) Apparently I bought AFTER median prices rose by 79.8% - bleah.

By eeeck at May 18, 2007 5:03 PM