It Happened One Weekend: Deutsche Demo Tragedy
Monday, August 20, 2007, by Joey
[Photo via 24gotham/Flickr]
1) As you've probably heard, a fire broke out at the Deutsche Bank building at ground zero, killing two Soho firefighters. The building, which was damaged on 9/11, is in the process of being demolished to make way for a new office tower. Back in May, a 15-foot section of steel pipe fell from the building and pierced the roof of a nearby fire station, injuring two. [NYT]
2) It's the question that financially-ruined developers from Miami to Malibu demand an answer to: If housing prices are crumbling everywhere else in the country, why are New York prices still going up? The Times' Teri Karush Rogers has a hypothesis: Wall Street bonus money and too many people moving to the city. Will the credit crunch put a stop to all this? We. Just. Don't. Know. [NYT]
3) Sex and the City devotees will tell you that 40 is the new 30, and Manhattan real estate brokers will swear up and down that 50 is the new 30. That's because it now takes $50 million to snare a trophy property, with the Harkness Mansion sale kicking off the madness and Bronfman cementing it. Alone, 40 takes a sip of merlot and silently weeps. [Josh Barbanel/Big Deal]
4) When two Spanish teachers from Milwaukee and The Onion's office manager team up to find a $3,000 three-bedroom Brooklyn rental, there's heartbreak and frustration along the way, including a meltdown over a broker fee (we've all been there). The end result, as always, is upping your budget to get something you truly want. For them, it's a 1,700-square-foot place in Clinton Hill. [Joyce Cohen/The Hunt]
5) Sign of the Apocalypse #2,341: An exclusive, trendy ping pong club is coming to Tribeca. Williamsburg, how did you drop the ball on this one? Ew, pun. [The City: Tribeca]
Filed under
Bars & Nightlife,
Brooklyn: Fort Greene,
Manhattan: Financial District/Wall St/Battery Park City,
Manhattan: Tribeca,
Real Estate Miscellany,
World Trade Center Redevelopment,
Credit Crunch,
Deutsche Bank Building,
Edgar Bronfman,
Ground Zero,
Harkness Mansion,
It Happened One Weekend
Actually, the NY Times headline meant to say:
NY Times Ad Revenue Down 3% Last Quarter -- We Can't Afford for the Manhattan Real Estate Market to Slow Down
And all the previous NY Times headlines meant to say:
We're desperate for people to buy copies of our newspaper -- We can't afford not to write about the impending crash of Manhattan real estate because every other newspaper and magazine does it to boost their circulation
It's likley that the NYT piece was written a couple of weeks ago. You can see the hastily added parts about the more recent news regarding the jacked up rates on jumbo loans.
I think the article made a good case for no crash scenario.
That was the worst article ever read, the market has not gone anywhere since 2Q '05. The supercondo's such as 15 CPW have been pusing average prices higher, resales are a bit more problematic, with affordability now seriously getting in the way of seller's dreams. The jumbo market is at 7.5% for great credit on a 30 yr fixed people.
I am always curious when brokers, etc. seem to brag that the real estate market in NYC is in part being helped by foreign buyers taking advantage of the weak Dollar and buying up places right and left (especially, it seems in new condo buildings).
Forgetting about whether one is an Anglophile, doesn't a foreign buyer mean either:
1. Someone who bought the place and is going to rent it out, or
2. Someone who is going to use the place as a crash pad in the city and let their friends do the same?
My assumption is that investors who rent out their apartments have less of a vested interest in the maintenance of the building and if there are too many renters in a building, it is harder to sell/finance apts in the building.
Also, I don't love the crash pad idea if I'm a NYC resident and paying all sorts on $ to buy into a building and want to make it a home.
Additionally, doesn't Miami have the issue of foreign investors coming in and out of that market every couple of years depending on how the market is doing? Will NYC be different in that respect?
I agree with three. They wrote this weeks ago and had to through something together as most of thier staff is probably out on vaca.
I wanted to be friends with those Milwaukee roommates.
re: NYT propaganda piece. It's different this time. NYC is different because __________. Foreigners will swoop in because of the cheap dollar, blah blah blah. This article sounds sooo May 2007. How's about running something a little more au courant for a change, NYT?
It is funny how most curbed posters are willing the NYC real estate market to crash - like they can take some glib satisfaction from the fact that a slice of the pie they could never afford to buy - has become cheaper - yet they are no nearer being able to afford to buy a piece. There is such resentment and jealously on this website. NYC is an expensive place to own property ... it always has and always will be. Let go of this burning hate you have for people that can afford to buy.
I don't think any Curbed reader wants the NYC market to crash, but let's be honest a market that only goes up is not a market.
2 important aspects of the current situation:
1) What happens when Wall Street Bonus money isn't flowing into NYC Real Estate. As in what will probably occur this year.
2) The Fed can drop rates all it wants, that does not improve value. Value is exactly what the NYC Real Estate market has no sense of.
wall street bonuses will be HIGHER this year than last morons.
it won't be till the following year, and perhaps 2009 that bonuses would be impacted because these firms make their financial breakdowns years in advance.
this wall street bonus season will be the largest to date.
i know you don't want to hear that, but it's the truth.
james cramer is an idiot.
Pwahhahaha #14 obviously doesn't work on wall street. Unless the market makes a significant turn-around, bonuses are going to be hit hard.
14 is correct. 16 is wrong.
re: 13 - I don't think any Curbed reader wants the NYC market to crash, but let's be honest a market that only goes up is not a market.
Wake up and smell the coffee ... this site is riddled with a cancer of jealously. People have an inherent dislike for other people's ability to own their own apartments in this city ... especially when they are going on 40 years old and still living in a studio where their neighbor's alarm clock wakes them up each morning through the wall.
NYC is not growing very quickly!!! Check out the census. It's growing, but not quickly!!
a million new residents between now and 2025 is pretty quick.
given we are already double the population of the second largest city in the nation and an island!!!
lord, the comments get more and more ignorant.
When cities like Cleveland, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Detroit, Buffalo are all losing population, any amount of growth is a good sign.
People are sick of the suburbs. If they live near a crap city, they leave that immediate area for even crappier (but sunny) places like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Orlando, etc. If they live in the tri-state area, they want to be in New York City, one of the greatest cities on the planet.
I believe one in 4 people in the U.S. live within 200 miles of New York. There's a reason for that, you know.
It's not about jealousy, it's about sustainability. It's not about bitterness, it's about knowing what's coming.
It's not about you, it's about your smugness.
NYC's population is increasing because of immigration. For existing U.S residents, there is a net migration out. Obviously immigration is not to be discounted but it is a lie that everyone wants to move here.
Uh... hate to say it, but James Cramer actually makes some sense here.
in case you were unaware, the population increases in the UNITED STATES are being upheld by immigration. hispanics are becoming the new face of the u.s. and new york. in 100 years, non hispanic caucasions will be few and far between.
don't pay attention to the news much, do you?
I believe NYC real estate market is 100% tied to Wall Street. Everything in NYC is tied to wall street. When the stret does well everyone does a little better, from restaurants, hot dog vendors , H&M, Bloomies and Nieman Marcus, car drivers, ShHea Stadium, everyone, even realtors. Wall Street numbers are in line with last year, The street is making lots of money, especialy on the M&A activity. The mortgage crisis is affecting banks, and NY Banks are seting up to benefit from this mortgage mess. Banks that can keep mortgages on their books, like Chase, Citi, WAMU, all the big players can afford to issue the new 7.5 fixed 30yr Jumbo to well qualified people, making lots of money doing it. Depost rates that bank pays go down (fed cut in the future) and mortgage rates will go up, what better scenerio for the banks. Wall street will take a beating, it always does, but it won't be this year. It's only bad if you work for Bear Stearns, and it's really not that bad, the stock is still well over $100.00. Sorry for the ranting, truly love curbed, only my consumer street perspective, not a broker.
#23, so if everyone doesn't want to move here, then do some people move here because they HATE it?
#14 and #17 are very likely quite wrong. We'll know in Jan, but I read the same article they did with the buffoon comp consultant who claimed bonuses would be up this year but down in '08.
Well, he's half-right. I have worked in banking for many years, and most non-deluded bankers expect pain this year as well as next. Real pain.
Why? First, I-banks are sitting on some big-ass losses (i.e., write-downs. You may have heard about them). Secondly, in banking, you get paid based on your value "away". Well, the hiring frenzy is over. By "over", I mean "over". UBS has a freeze, others to follow. No firm is concerned anymore that their bankers will run across the street for a competitor's 3x3 package anytime soon.
In sum, all expect it will be a tough bonus season. Bankers themselves expect it.
good.
we need less bankers in new york.
and lawyers.
lots less.
#25: As I stated I'm well aware of immigration. I wanted to point out to the crowd that screams that "everyone wants to live here", that the facts don't bear that out.
#27: I have no idea what you're talking about.
#10 and 18 are spot on. Even in the fact of evidence they are still in denial...
The article must be 3 weeks old (credit crunch was in full swing 3 weeks ago it just got trendy to talk about it this past week).
ummmm....#10 is a whackjob that cut and pasted that entry into all of today's threads, btw.
agreeing with him/her is like agreeing with G.W. at this point.
I hear Mexicans are slipping across our borders and snapping up the $2M 1BR condos. Another reason to enforce tougher border controls.
Jim Cramer is full of shite. Another tool trying to keep the engine going. Screaming all bloody hell about Bernacke to lower rates. Why? To save his ass, that's why. The NYC market is headed for some pain. The rich will get theirs.
#32 that doesn't mean that its not true.
the rich won't even feel it.
you think someone who bought a 5-50 million dollar condo, co-op or townhouse is going to give a rats ass if prices drop 20%?
the answer is no.
36. Do you think anyone cares what the rich feel?
It's about the Manhattan middle class. The people in the 750k-1.5MM apts. They will feel it and it will hurt and it is good for everyone.
LOLOLOLOLOL. you're an idiot, 4:56.
people living in 750K-1.5 million dollar apartments are NOT middle class.
even by New York standards.
open your eyes.
6% of new yorkers make over 200K a year.
get a clue.
#38 - actually they are middle class, by definition.
A $750-$1.5M apt in Manhattan is a middle-class apt. Period. A one-BR or modest 2BR (which is what that $ gets you) are simple middle-class homes. Therefore, by definition, that is the Manhattan middle class.
It's not Kansas City middle class, or even Brooklyn middle class, but it sure the hell is Manhattan middle class.
67% of manhattan is rental.
anyway you look at it, you're wrong, 69.
#36...the rich feel everything. That's why their rich, they watch every penny.
and the reason you aren't rich is because you don't know the difference between "their" and they're.
Bottom line, people will continue to snap up real estate in NYC. One thing even the bitter, twisted resentful curbed posters that can only ever dream of being able to move out of their 6th floor studio walk up can agree ... NYC is a great city to live in. The energy and diversity of the place makes it the place to be.
The credit crunch is old news yet the world is still turning. Why aren't $1.5 millions condos dropping in price to 50 cents yet. Why are new developments still raising the prices of each subsequent release of units? This can't be right. We are supposed to be crashing here. It is supposed to be doom and gloom. Smart investors should be running for the hills, why are apartments still selling. Maybe just maybe, the bubble hasn't burst ... it has just stopped growing.
I usually avoid ad hominems, but #43, you are just plain fookin dumb. I mean, a rockin-back-and-forth idiot.
People love gold, too. Probably more people like gold than NYC. But the price of gold goes up and even down!! Gold is great stuff to have! But wait! Why doesn't it just go up and up and up...
What a maroon.
I get the feeling that (generally) new developments are either dropping prices or not selling units.
20 Pines has been "HOT HOT HOT" but they're still selling units years later - despite the "Ad genius" SHVO.
maybe cause 20 pine is a dump.
Amazing how much the bitter buyers rationalize. 2 months ago, it was Wall Street bonuses that were going to save them and prop the NYC market up as the country tanked.
Now, Wall Street is taking, layoffs are imminent, and the bonus pool has a huge leak. Not to mention a ton of funds will close and lay everyone off, and investors have seen losses from 30-100%
Now, all of a sudden Wall Street doesn't have anything to do with the picture?
Talk about major rationization.
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