Three Cents Worth: The Seasonal Listing Wavelength

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[This week, our graph guru Jonathan Miller looks at how inventory rises and falls according to the season.]

[Click to expand.]

This week, I took our monthly inventory data and plotted the past eight years month-by-month to see what the patterns are. The quarters are labeled by the general season they fall within. The patterns are pretty thin, with summer seeing the most consistency.

Winter: A period of mixed trends. Listing activity tends to be erratic with inventory relatively stable minus a few exceptions. Inventory dropped sharply in 2002 as properties were pulled off the market in the aftermath of 9/11. In 2006, there was significant expansion of inventory as the number of sales remained low. This year (2008) we are seeing an increase in inventory, but the actual levels remain between the other seven years presented.

Spring: Inventory generally increases in the early spring and then levels off, or shows a decline as the pace of sales overtakes available inventory. Again, 2006 was an anomaly, showing an increase in inventory.

Summer: I was struck by the consistency of the pattern each summer. From mid-August to mid-September, listing inventory begins to rise for all years except 2003, when the increase began a month later.

Fall: Inventory falls as demand eases. Potential sellers tend to delay placing their listings on the market until after the New Year unless they are under pressure to sell.
· Manhattan Co-op/Condo Inventory By Year [Miller Samuel]

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