The gang over at PropertyShark just released their April 2008 foreclosures report, and for the third consectuive month, New York City f-bombs passed the 300 mark, a level not reached in any month in 2007. The current number is 329, down 6.8% from the previous month, but up 84% year-over-year. Forecloures were slight down in Staten Island and the Bronx, and up everywhere else, though Manhattan made a minor leap from 10 to 15. Queens continues to be the big turkey, sucking up 58% of newly scheduled auctions. The 11434 zip code—comprising Jamaica, South Jamaica, Hollis and St. Albans—led the way with 24 new foreclosures.
· PropertyShark Monthly Foreclosure Report - April 2008 [PropShark; warning: PDF]
· First Quarter Foreclosures Report: Bad Day for Queens [Curbed]
It's probably a good thing that Prudential Douglas Elliman waited a while to release its first-quarter market report for Queens and Long Island. Given the controversy and reaction to the brokerage's Manhattan report, poor little Queens would have been completely ignored! But now, we can focus on Prince Akeem's favorite borough. So, is the news good and bad, like big brother Manhattan? Sort of. In Queens, the median sales price in Q1 was $498,500, up 1.1% from the first quarter of 2007. The average sales price was $535,308, up from the prior-year quarter average of $490,637. Looking specifically at condos, Queens saw a jump from $246,350 to $342,367 in average sales price over the last year, something that can be described as the "Long Island City effect." The "luxury submarket" average (the top 10% of sales) was $1,068,474, up from $903,805 last year (again, thanks LIC). And now, the less encouraging news: inventory increased a whopping 20.9%, to 11,206 units, which should set off some sort of air-raid siren for fans of the glut theory. And apartments are spending an average of 101 days on the market, up from 93 last year. We can only imagine what will happen to these numbers once the Jesuscondo hits the market, but for now, who cares to analyze?
· Market Reports [Elliman; Q1 Queens/LI to be uploaded soon]
· First Quarter Market Reports: Prices Up, Sales Down [Curbed]
NOLITA—A tipster sends in the above curious photo of an Airstream trailer being dropped off at the construction site at Elizabeth and Prince Streets, demanding more info on said curiosity. We've learned that the new 7-story boutique condo building at 211 Elizabeth Street will use the Airstream as its showroom, and it will be set into the ground floor of the building. The whole shebang is being unveiled tomorrow, and we'll have much more to say about this building then. [CurbedWire Inbox]
BROKERVILLE—Dolly Lenz has already made her opinions felt regarding the discrepancies between the Prudential Douglas Elliman first-quarter sales report and the far sunnier Halstead/Brown Harris Stevens report, and now Halstead/BHS chief economist Gregory Heym (who prepared the report) has weighed in as well. In a memo sent to all agents in the company, he wrote: "Last week, we released our First Quarter Market Report for Manhattan based on closed sales and our competitors released their own individual reports as well. One of the other reports stated that the number of sales had fallen 34% compared to the first quarter of 2007. This decline in sales was widely reported in the media, along with our findings of only a 1% decline in the number of sales. The main reason for this discrepancy is how many sales actually closed during the first quarter of 2008."
1) Now that the headlines regarding the Manhattan market have subsided, it's time to assess the outer boroughs. According to sales figures, it looks like non-Manhattan areas are more in line with the rest of the country, meaning a slight-to-major downturn. However, it's a complicated mess, because some things just can't stop selling at huge prices. We're looking at you, Brooklyn brownstones. ['Taking the Pulse of the Boroughs'/Christine Haughney]
2) Behind hippiesh leader Janette Sadik-Khan, the Department of Transportation is rethinking street planning in terms of pedestrians and cyclists, instead of just cars. Here are 10 ideas, some practical and some crazy, for the thruways of the future. The Woonerf! ['Taking Back the Streets'/Jeff Byles]
3) If, like us, you've ever been curious/amazed/frightened about Co-Op City up in the Bronx along the Hutchinson River, then here's everything you need to know about America's biggest co-op housing project. Like, for example, that it has three shopping centers. Or that the board is thinking about removing Co-Op City from Mitchell-Lama and opening it up to market-rate buyers. Controversy! [Living In/Elsa Brenner]
4) A young couple ready to rent their first joint apartments makes the usual Brooklyn rounds (she plays in the boccie league at Union Hall, naturally) before finally snagging an affordable one-bedroom on Fifth Avenue. [The Hunt/Joyce Cohen]
5) Dudes, Upper East Siders want to ball. Can Asphalt Green bring back the courts already? [The City/Gregory Beyer]
The major brokerages' first-quarter sales reports were released this week, and one of the biggest headlines was the drop in number of sales over Q1 of last year. Most of the press coverage seized on that stat, with the point being, sure, prices are at record highs, but those numbers are inflated by the super-luxury market, and the outlook is much more grim. Prudential Douglas Elliman reported the sharpest drop in sales volume by far, claiming a 34% fall in Manhattan deals. This apparently caught Elliman Vice ChairmanDolly Lenz—perhaps the city's biggest superbroker—off-guard. In a company-wide e-mail, she wrote:
I do not agree with the assessment of "our" report but that being said, two major financial institutions which I spoke with today requested an explanation to today's New York Sun's story about Corcoran being up 5% in sales volume while we are down 34% for the same period.
Yesterday was the fun market-report day, even if the news was mixed. Today, it's the sad market-report day: PropertyShark's Q1 foreclosures study. Things are getting a little dicey, as you can see above, though it could be worse (Miami had nine times as many). Still, the 918 first-time foreclosures represent a 51% increase over Q4 2007, and a 65% increase over the first quarter of last year. Of course, it's all Queens's fault (and to a lesser extent, Staten Island), as the borough accounts for 508 of the foreclosures. Manhattan even slipped a little, from 27 to 23. Click through the gallery of charts for all your dirty f-word needs.
· First Quarter Market Reports: Prices Up, Sales Down [Curbed]
· Subprimal Therapy: Advice for Foreclosure Sufferers [Curbed]
The entire industry has been holding its breath in anticipation of this moment, and here we go: the release of the major brokerages' Q1 market sales reports. Will the credit crunch and the mortgage crisis finally infiltrate Manhattan real estate? Will Wall Street layoffs slow the now years-strong market surge? No, yes and maybe. Here's the headline: prices are up—again. In fact, the average sales price reached a new record. Jonathan Miller's report for Elliman has the Q1 average sales price at $1.72 million, up 33.5% from Q1 2007. Gregory Heym's Halstead/Brown Harris Stevens report (not online yet) has the number at $1.69 million, up 46% from his numbers last year. Wow! But we all know those numbers are inflated by the 15 Central Park West and Plaza closings (for the quarter, 71 apartments sold for more than $10 million, compared with 17 in Q1 2007), so what about the median? Elliman has the median sales price at a record $945,276, up 13.2% over last year, while Halstead/BHS has it at $855,000, also a record and up 13%. Woo, the bulls win! Let's pop the champagne! Well, hold that thought, because here is where things get a little dicey.
The major brokerages' Q1 market reports are due out in the next few days, but Bloomberg got a teaser from Curbed chartmaster and appraiser extraordinaire Jonathan Miller, who prepared Elliman's quarterly report. Brace:
Manhattan apartment sales fell in January and February from a year earlier and new properties came to the market at the fastest pace since at least 2000, according to data from New York-based real estate appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. Transactions slid 6.4 percent to 3,250, while the number of condominiums, co- operatives and townhouses for sale at the end of last month climbed to 6,225, 15 percent more than at the start of the year.
Are the credit crunch and Wall Street job cuts starting to rear their ugly head within the world of Manhattan real estate? Or are year-over-year numbers not worth pulling your hair out over? Oh my, this is going to be an interesting week. But while the number of transactions may be down from this time last year, prices still seem to be rising. Brown Harris Stevens' and Halstead's chief economist reports a 14% property price increase, to a median of $850,000. The final feast before the empire collapses?
· New York City Real Estate Market Slows as Wall Street Cuts Jobs [Bloomberg]
[This week, chart master and holder of many secrets JonathanMiller explains why people who call the Manhattan market "one-dimensional" are dead wrong.]
[Click to expand.]
With the 1Q 2008 report coming out next week, and all the attention being paid to the high end of the Manhattan market, I thought I'd present the dollar volume of properties that sell below $1M, over $4M and in between. I began to do this after 9/11 because I noticed how sales activity at the (then) higher end of $4M was very limited, losing market share throughout 2002 and early 2003.
Since that time (and I am not adjusting for CPI), market share for properties above $4M has more than doubled, from 11% to 30%, while sub-million has dropped from 50% to 25%. However, the middle sector of the $1M to $4M market has remained relatively consistent, generally hovering in the high 45% to 50% range.
The Post's Steve Cuozzo reads the tea leaves on the commercial and residential real estate markets, and he says that we're in for some troubled times. Not a shocking declaration given the level of panic out there concerning the credit crunch and Wall Street layoffs, but Cuozzo does not concern himself with paltry matters of the present. No, the Cuozz has his eye on 2010 as the winter of our discontent, because "an unusually high percentage of office leases will roll and many glamorous new condo projects will open their doors." In the meantime, Cuozzo writes that the current climate will make it difficult for certain far-fetched ideas to get realized, like the office tower that's supposed to sprout from the Port Authority bus terminal or even Sheldon Solow's East River waterfront plan. But all is not doom and gloom. In comes Curbed Network BFF Jonathan Miller to point out that the credit crunch may actually limit future damages to the market, because fewer apartments and buildings will be built due to a lack of financing.
· A Discouraging Word [NYP]
In last season's set of Corcoran's "live who you are" ads, the CorcoDad was riding high. True, he may have been suffering through an emotionally draining divorce, but he still had the love of his children. Best of all, he had a sleek home with large windows and ceiling heights that would make your mouth water. This time around it's a different story. The CorcoDad seems to have fallen on some tough times. Note the glum expression, the lack of happy youngsters and the stoop in need of sweeping in—dare we say it—Brooklyn? He's holding a grocery bag, leading us to believe that refrigerated lobby FreshDirect storage is a thing of the past. He has "make-over potential." Tragic, yes, and perhaps a larger sign of the market's health, or lack thereof?
· Live Who You Are [Corcoran]
1) Can a change of address break a curse? P. Diddy's old 12-story townhouse at 813 Park Avenue has bounced between developers and brokerages with no buyers in sight. Now divided into three huge apartments, 813 Park is looking for a fresh start with a new address, 807 Park Avenue, and interiors by designer Eric Cohler. The real curse, however, may be that those jaw-dropping 17-foot-tall ceilings in the living rooms don't carry over to the other rooms. The above photos come from $12.99 million Townhouse #2 listing. [Big Deal/Josh Barbanel]
3) The massive condo conversion of the Manhattan House has the stink of desperation all over it. With the June 30 deadline of delivering 87 signed contracts approaching, the developers are trying a new stunt to generate interest: hosting the 2008 Kips Bay Decorator Show House in its five 20-story towers. The Kips Bay Decorator Show House is traditionally held in, you know, a house. [Big Deal/Josh Barbanel]
[This week, our graph guru JonathanMiller looks at how inventory rises and falls according to the season.]
[Click to expand.]
This week, I took our monthly inventory data and plotted the past eight years month-by-month to see what the patterns are. The quarters are labeled by the general season they fall within. The patterns are pretty thin, with summer seeing the most consistency.
Winter: A period of mixed trends. Listing activity tends to be erratic with inventory relatively stable minus a few exceptions. Inventory dropped sharply in 2002 as properties were pulled off the market in the aftermath of 9/11. In 2006, there was significant expansion of inventory as the number of sales remained low. This year (2008) we are seeing an increase in inventory, but the actual levels remain between the other seven years presented.
Spring: Inventory generally increases in the early spring and then levels off, or shows a decline as the pace of sales overtakes available inventory. Again, 2006 was an anomaly, showing an increase in inventory.
Summer: I was struck by the consistency of the pattern each summer. From mid-August to mid-September, listing inventory begins to rise for all years except 2003, when the increase began a month later.
Fall: Inventory falls as demand eases. Potential sellers tend to delay placing their listings on the market until after the New Year unless they are under pressure to sell.
· Manhattan Co-op/Condo Inventory By Year [Miller Samuel]
It was less than two weeks ago when Pam Liebman, Corcoran Group CEO and one of the market's primary cheerleaders, dropped a bombshell: "If Wall Street has a terrible year, and the press is really talking negative about the economy and the election," Pam said, "I think things could really slow down at the end of the year." Yes, some have a grim outlook on where the market is headed, and we're curious as to how a press release just issued by the Department of Housing Preservation & Development plays into that. According to HPD and U.S. Census Bureau records, the 31,918 building permits issued for privately-owned residential units in New York City in 2007 was the highest number since 1972. Wasn't that just before the "crisis of abandonment" (as HPD puts it) decimated the market and many neighborhoods? The outer-boroughs are often seen as the first to feel the effects of a slowdown, and 70% of those permits were issued outside of Manhattan, with Brooklyn and Queens receiving their highest number of permits ever. At what point does all this new housing stock become too much to bare? Are we anywhere near that point, or is there still a ravenous appetite for new construction inventory, especially outside of Manhattan? Are new condo buildings the squats of tomorrow? OK, maybe that's taking it a bit far.
· New York City's Residential Building Book Continues Through 2007 [nyc.gov]
· Your Morning Credit Crunch: Pam Hits the Panic Button [Curbed]
[This week, our graph guru JonathanMiller examines the relationship between the amount of time listings dangle on the market and the severity of their PriceChopping.]
[Click to expand.]
I have graphed two marketing time indicators this week: Days on Market and Listing Discount. The two indicators track fairly closely, which is logical since one would expect the negotiability on price to increase as the time on the market increased.
Days on Market is defined as the average number of days that a property sits on the market from the last time the list price was changed (if at all) to contract date.
Listing Discount is defined as the percentage difference between the last list price and the contract price.
After a decline in both indicators over the past year, both have bumped up as of late. However, it's not clear whether this indicates a weaker spring market ahead. Over the past decade, these indicators were evenly split on whether they rose in the first quarter, even during the boom years. Listing discount has trended upward for the past two quarters and days on market in the past quarter. I've always seen this market indicator as a supplement to other indicators like price trends, inventory and sales levels. In light of the upheaval in the credit markets, and the national economy being either on the verge of or in a recession, I suspect we won't see much improvement in either indicator over the next several quarters.
· Listing Discount versus Days on Market [Miller Samuel]
Comments
It's probably a good thing that Prudential Douglas Elliman waited a while to release its first-quarter market report for Queens and Long Island. Given the 
1) Now that the headlines regarding the Manhattan market have subsided, it's time to assess the outer boroughs. According to sales figures, it looks like non-Manhattan areas are more in line with the rest of the country, meaning a slight-to-major downturn. However, it's a complicated mess, because some things just can't stop selling at huge prices. We're looking at you, Brooklyn brownstones. [
The major brokerages' first-quarter sales reports were 
The major brokerages' Q1 market reports are due out in the next few days, but 
The Post's Steve Cuozzo reads the tea leaves on the commercial and residential real estate markets, and he says that we're in for some troubled times. Not a shocking declaration given the level of panic out there concerning the credit crunch and Wall Street layoffs, but Cuozzo does not concern himself with paltry matters of the present. No, the Cuozz has his eye on 2010 as the winter of our discontent, because "an unusually high percentage of office leases will roll and many glamorous new condo projects will open their doors." In the meantime, Cuozzo writes that the current climate will make it difficult for certain far-fetched ideas to get realized, like the 
It was less than two weeks ago when Pam Liebman, Corcoran Group CEO and one of the market's primary cheerleaders, 